**Analysis and levels rolled to June Future

WTI Crude Oil Futures (June Future)

Thursday’s Settlement: 64.01, up +2.18 [+3.53%] for the day, up +3.11 [+5.10%] for the week

WTI Crude Oil futures finished strong on Thursday on OPEC+ compensation cuts, Iran threats, and Dollar weakness.

The Iran negotiations appear to be breaking down with the US set to apply “maximum” pressure on the countries oil exports. This should be a bullish catalyst moving forward.

The OPEC compensation cuts are the primary fundamental mover. While these compensation cuts are known to be somewhat flimsy, with countries not always abiding by them, our view is that Iraq and Kazakhstan will abide.

We shifted our bias to Neutral / Bullish on Thursday morning alongside the news of these compensation cuts.

Today, Crude Oil is up -1.58 [-2.47%] to 62.43

Markets were looking for good news over the weekend and received none, leading to a risk-off bleed on the Sunday open into Monday morning. The Dollar is once again trading weaker, and the risk-off move is dragging crude with it.

This continues to be a headline-driven market, and we need trade deals and good news to shift sentiment back into risk-taking mode.

Shifting risk-sentiment more positive will be a difficult task as long as these tariffs overhang global markets.

China has vowed to retaliate against countries that work with the US to isolate Beijing. This could amplify the trade war and drag risk assets lower this morning.

Technical Analysis:

Light volume through the overnight session has dragged crude lower on this risk-off move. Based on crude fundamentals, we are looking for a bounceback from the overnight session, but the news out of Beijing could weigh on that trade.

Again, traders should be prepared for amplified volatility and sharp moves driven by headlines.

We’d like to see another settlement above 63.81** and a consolidation above this level before prices take a run at the key four-star level of 64.62-65.27****. Until we consolidate above 63.81**, momentum will remain in the bears’ favor.

For intraday trading our pivot and point of balance is set at….

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